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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple script. It often functions as a form of apology. We regret we misjudged your team in our pre-campaign forecasts.

On paper, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who oversaw the largest improvement wins the award. In reality, it sparks an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent leadership or merely the biggest upset.

But this year's field is distinctly unique. The list of nominees is remarkably strong. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning division winners falling away and recent also-rans rising collectively. Under an typical year, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in such a wild and entertaining season, he's up against several other elite candidates.

Below is how the ideal ballot ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper system, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained excellence. With Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan instead of improvising. It is an attack built entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide receiver targets consistently. Williams has capitalized. And when openings weren't available, he's been capable to conjure big plays from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually every bet – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the building with the immense pressure he did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive genius but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

During a normal season, he would be the runaway favorite. Yet this isn't a typical campaign!

The area where his case comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for sustained winning. But Johnson comes up short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has masterminded a swift turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has excelled at the leadership stuff, which was not a certainty after his early public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal staff cocktail of youth and experience, Coen bet on first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. But he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

Following an early strong start, there was a chance that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year setback had the Jags stumbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed after that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still