Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the other's positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
